Markets Desk
History grouped with n + Δ · then Blend %
Model desk

Top buys today

Ranked by |History − Live| × sample confidence × Blend agreement. Paper signals only — not advice.

Pending = snapped before Kalshi settles. After settle: Correct/Wrong + paper PnL (¢ per $1). Qualified calls need |Δ| ≥ 8pp and n ≥ 5.

How to read this desk

Order of trust

  1. Live — what traders price right now (Yes / No pills).
  2. Compare — minimal spark: solid green Live (always in front), purple History, yellow Blend; shade spans min–max. Hover for exact %.
  3. History % — purple pill. Kalshi settle rate for similar phrases.
  4. n — sample size behind History (how many settled markets). Larger n (about 20+) is more trustworthy; under ~10 is noisy. This is the trust signal — not Blend.
  5. Δ — Live minus History in percentage points. Positive = board hotter than history; negative = history hotter than the board. Default sort is largest |Δ| first.
  6. Blend % — yellow pill. Estimated say-likelihood (0–100), same scale as Yes %. ~50% History + ~30% speech + ~20% event fit. Not a trust weight — use History’s n= for trust. When speech is thin, prefer History vs Live.
  7. Historical grades — after settle, each snapped call is graded Correct/Wrong with paper PnL. Pending = awaiting Kalshi result. This feed trains which indicators actually predict.
  8. Top buys — paper edge score: |History − Live| × √(n/25) × Blend agreement (1.15 if Blend agrees with the side, 0.85 if it fights). Needs |Δ| ≥ 8pp and n ≥ 5. Yes = History above Live (history says more likely than the board). No = Live above History.
SituationWhat to trust
History and Blend both well above or below LiveStronger signal — gap is more interesting
History high, Blend much lowerOften thin speech dragging Blend — prefer History vs Live
History thin (low n), Blend higherSpeech-led only — treat as experimental
No coverage / missing HistorySkip for edge hunting until more settles land
Figure selectorWho we’re tracking. Tap one to filter boards.
MarketKalshi contract phrase for that show/event.
ReadQuick gap label vs history. Hover ⓘ for the one-line why.
AlignedLive ≈ history Model higherHistory above live Model lowerLive above history No coverage

Display only — no trades. Habit: scan Δ first, then check whether Blend agrees. Updated weekday mornings at 8:00 AM PT.

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