Live Kalshi odds vs History · Blend · Top buys · Listen
Model desk
Top buys today
Ranked by |History − Live| × sample confidence × Blend agreement. Paper signals only — not advice.
Prior-day and settled boards. Headers start collapsed — expand to review. Score chips show paper call grades for that event.
Pending = snapped before Kalshi settles. After settle: Correct/Wrong + paper PnL (¢ per $1). Qualified calls need |Δ| ≥ 8pp and n ≥ 5.
Trump lane · paper
Separate lane · paper only · not in shared six scorer.
Gates: format History n≥10 · briefing ready · event-fit high · |Δ|≥8 · then Confirm paper call (never silent buy).
Settles here do not feed Vance/Newsom/Warren/Ossoff/AOC/Bernie History, Blend, or accuracy watch.
Trump Top buys (Call-ready only · paper)
Auto-suggest as Call-ready — Confirm required. Not mixed into core Top buys.
Paper grade book (this lane)
How to read this desk
Order of trust
Live — what traders price right now (Yes / No pills).
Compare — minimal spark: solid green Live (always in front), purple History, yellow Blend; shade spans min–max. Hover for exact %.
History % — purple pill. Kalshi settle rate for similar phrases.
n — sample size behind History (how many settled markets). Larger n (about 20+) is more trustworthy; under ~10 is noisy. This is the trust signal — not Blend.
Δ — Live minus History in percentage points. Positive = board hotter than history; negative = history hotter than the board. Default sort is largest |Δ| first.
Blend % — yellow pill. Estimated say-likelihood (0–100), same scale as Yes %. ~50% History + ~30% speech + ~20% event fit. Not a trust weight — use History’s n= for trust. When speech is thin, prefer History vs Live.
Past — prior-calendar-day / settled betting boards (auto-collapsed). Header chip shows paper call score (e.g. 3/5 right) instead of Listen.
Historical grades — after settle, each snapped call is graded Correct/Wrong with paper PnL. Pending = awaiting Kalshi result. This feed trains which indicators actually predict.
Trump lane — opt-in paper-only tab. Separate History/briefings/grades. Not a 7th figure in the shared six scorer.
Top buys — paper edge score: |History − Live| × √(n/25) × Blend agreement (1.15 if Blend agrees with the side, 0.85 if it fights). Needs |Δ| ≥ 8pp and n ≥ 5. Yes = History above Live (history says more likely than the board). No = Live above History.
Situation
What to trust
History and Blend both well above or below Live
Stronger signal — gap is more interesting
History high, Blend much lower
Often thin speech dragging Blend — prefer History vs Live
History thin (low n), Blend higher
Speech-led only — treat as experimental
No coverage / missing History
Skip for edge hunting until more settles land
Figure selectorWho we’re tracking. Tap one to filter boards.
MarketKalshi contract phrase for that show/event.
ReadQuick gap label vs history. Hover ⓘ for the one-line why.